The prediction for the next 100 days Part 2

Purpose

The head of the White house office of the rings Primus is one of the key members of the administration Trump

How slowly the administration of Donald Trump nominates candidates for thousands of positions in the Federal government, remains one of the most fascinating aspects of his presidency. Although Trump has consistently attacked Democrats in the Senate for what they are, how he thinks (and thinks wrong), deliberately delaying the appointment of his Cabinet, he is even slower appoints candidates for lower posts in the government. Few people pay attention to the candidacy of Deputy, other deputies or ambassadors, but these people and ensure smooth operation of the ministries and embassies.

The people around Trump

Partially it could be specially designed. Public service, which lacks key officials would be less efficient to resist the budget cuts. In addition, the administration Trump, apparently, intends to reduce the influence of career diplomats in the state Department.

But in other areas, for example, in trade, the economy or the social sphere, the absence of key officials complicates the work of the administration. Will he succeed? Of course. It needs only to send to Congress a list of candidates. But it seems that sometimes he likes chaos.

Foreign policy

During the election campaign, Trump promised to change the attitude towards foreign policy, concentrating on domestic Affairs. He stated the need to “put America at the forefront”.

Now, however, his administration faced two potential international crises that may force it to abandon its intent not to intervene in global conflicts. Hitting an air force base Syria, the US once again made it clear that they intend to punish those who violate international law. Especially if we are talking about the use of chemical weapons.

If Syrian President Bashar Assad may decide to use such weapons against its own population, the Trump will probably have to resort to more serious demonstrations of force than a missile salvo from both ships.

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Meanwhile, the situation around the nuclear programs of North Korea and its missile tests continues to remain tense.

“Strategic patience has passed,” said recently Vice President Mike Pence, alluding to the policies of President Obama with respect to North Korea. However, this apparently does not bother the North Korean leader, Kim Jong UN, who may respond to any US attack massive artillery bombardment of Seoul, located 55 kilometers from the demilitarized zone.

In North Korea and in Syria in front of the Trump may come up with a choice: either to decide on the escalation of the conflict in accordance with his increasingly loud statements, or to back down. But that would mean that his threat is empty. Do not forget about other possible crises in Yemen and Ukraine, in Afghanistan, in the South China sea… it is Impossible to predict exactly where the President Trump will face a serious problem.

What can he do? While it is difficult to understand what do Donald Trump, as he rattles the saber, it just ignores foreign issues.

Trade

Candidate Trump uttered a very tough speech on the question of international trade. In the coming days he will be able to demonstrate that he was saying all this seriously. His recent differences with Canada on the issue of exports to USA and Canadian dairy products and wood, it seems, should be seen as a prelude to negotiating the NAFTA Treaty.

On Thursday, Donald Trump told reporters that almost was, decided to withdraw the U.S. from NAFTA, but changed their minds after talks with the leaders of Canada and Mexico. There is a certain irony, since, for example, issues related to U.S. imports of Canadian dairy products would be allowed under a trade agreement on the partnership, which Trump refused at the very beginning of his presidency.

During his election campaign Trump regularly made attacks on China, but, as President, significantly changed the tone of his statements. While there is no indication that the U.S. is ready to start a trade war with its main trading partner.

What’s next? As about China, apparently, it was decided to forget that Trump will have to achieve better conditions in the revision of NAFTA, and it’s a long and laborious process.

Legislation

In order to spend the new laws through Congress, Trump would need to work closely with both parties.

It is hoped that the house of representatives can come to an agreement on the abolition of the national health system is President Obama (Obamacare) and replace it with a new one.

However, any project of the house of representatives will encounter serious obstacles in the Senate, where many Republicans oppose the proposals of their colleagues from the lower chamber.

Legislation on the reform of the tax system, one of the priorities Trump is only at an early stage.

Judging by the fact that the proposals of the administration on this issue is rather uncertain, a large share of the load in advancing the reform will have to bear the Republicans in Congress. In the case of Obamacare it didn’t work.

Tax cuts for business

During the election campaign Donald Trump promised to dramatically increase spending on the country’s infrastructure, but also on child benefits.

These proposals can be supported by the representatives of both parties in Congress, but only on the condition that Democrats can be persuaded to sit down at the negotiating table. It is not easy, given the fact that Trump has spent the first 100 days of his presidency, constantly accusing the Democrats of all sins.

In some other world President Trump could start with increasing spending on infrastructure, not with the abolition of Obama’s health care system that would undermine the resistance of the Democrats. But this did not happen.

Nevertheless, the Republicans remain the majority in both houses of Congress, and the closer the date of the next congressional elections, the more this party is going to need some real achievements.

What’s next? The Republicans control the White house and both houses of Congress. They should get at least some breakthroughs in the reform legislation.

Elections

And Trump, and the Republican party are already thinking about the elections for Congress, slated for November 2018. At stake  the entire house of representatives, a third of the Senate and 36 gubernatorial posts (including in the key States: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and California).

The party of the President at such election traditionally loses. But Trump may be in luck: one third of the Senate seats will be elected from the States where he won a convincing victory (Indiana, West Virginia, Montana and Missouri).

Although now the Republican majority in the Senate is only two votes, in the elections of 2018 to keep the defense will have mostly Democrats. In the house of representatives all the way. Demographics and how defined the boundaries of the districts play into the hands of the Republicans.

If in 2018 Donald Trump will lose his popularity and voter turnout, the Democrats, the Democratic party may be, and will for the first time since 2010, to regain control of the house of representatives. It is important for the party since the control of the Democrats over at least one house of Congress will help her to significantly limit the possibility of the President in the promotion of new laws and allow them to thoroughly investigate his every move. Remember an endless series of investigations that Republicans in Congress conducted during the presidency of Barack Obama.

Now imagine how happy Democrats would investigate tax returns Donald Trump, accusations of his possible ties with Russia and other conflicts of interest. In order to understand where the wind is blowing, is to closely monitor the gubernatorial election this November in new Jersey and Virginia, as well as elections to the house of representatives in Montana and Georgia. What’s next? Past experience is not encouraging to supporters of the President. Most likely, the only question is how bloody will this carnage.